[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin’s price in 2030 could be influenced more by regulatory changes, the spread of AI-based payments, stablecoin growth and reduced supply after halvings than by another retail investor-led rally, an outlook said. It said how deeply bitcoin is incorporated into existing financial and technology infrastructure could be a key variable in determining the future price range.

On Sept. 22 (local time), blockchain media outlet U.Today cited factors that could shape bitcoin’s 2030 price, including U.S. regulatory changes, the use of cryptocurrencies by AI agents, the expansion of stablecoins and a decline in supply.

The first variable to watch is the U.S. regulatory environment. The U.S. Senate on Sept. 15 rejected the Clarity bill, which defines the market structure for digital assets, by a 49-50 vote. The bill failed to secure the 60 votes needed for passage, but the legislative debate has not ended completely after Senator Thom Tillis submitted a motion to reconsider.

The Clarity bill’s main content includes distinguishing the authority of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and establishing a regulatory framework for digital commodities. Differences remain over consumer protection, ethics rules and the scope of DeFi oversight, but expectations have also emerged that it could reduce legal uncertainty and spur financial institutions to enter digital assets.

What matters in the market is not the bill’s name itself but how much regulatory barriers are lowered when banks, asset managers, custodians and companies incorporate digital assets. If institutional adoption expands, bitcoin’s investment demand base could also change.

The spread of AI is also emerging as a new variable. By 2030, AI agents may directly carry out parts of economic activity, separate from people buying cryptocurrencies themselves. Autonomous AI agents could repeatedly make small payments when buying computing resources, accessing paid databases, reserving services or trading with other agents, it said.

The existing financial system is designed around verified human account holders making relatively large transactions. Existing financial infrastructure may not be suitable for an environment where countless software processes repeatedly make small payments 24 hours a day, it said.

In such an environment, automated payments using stablecoins could spread. If structures such as Coinbase’s x402 protocol, which allows AI agents and software to automatically pay API or online service fees, become more widespread, usage across the broader crypto infrastructure could increase even if AI does not trade bitcoin directly.

Stablecoins are also cited as an indirect channel for fund flows that can lead into the bitcoin market. The United States passed the Genius Act in July last year, establishing a federal-level regulatory framework for stablecoins.

Stablecoins connect the dollar and the blockchain ecosystem. When dollar-linked assets such as USDC or USDT flow on-chain, it becomes easier to move into various digital assets, including bitcoin and ether, tokenised securities and lending markets.

Still, growth in the stablecoin market itself does not guarantee increased demand for bitcoin. If confidence in stablecoins is shaken, it could create new risks for bank deposits and financial markets. Even so, the analysis said that over the long term, the dollar and crypto infrastructure could develop in a direction where they are connected rather than separated.

On the supply side, the bitcoin halving scheduled for 2028 is an important variable. In the next halving, the block subsidy will fall from the current 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. By 2030, most of the total issuance of 21 million BTC will already have been supplied to the market, and new issuance will account for an even smaller share of total supply.

That means reduced new supply could have a larger impact on prices if demand continues to rise. Supply cuts alone do not guarantee higher prices, and actual prices are influenced by multiple factors such as demand and market liquidity.

Based on these variables, U.Today divided bitcoin’s 2030 price into three scenarios. It suggested a range of $80,000 to $150,000 if institutional adoption stalls, AI payments are made mainly through existing financial networks and stablecoin growth does not significantly translate into bitcoin demand. Continued regulatory fragmentation is also a condition of this scenario.

It presented $200,000 to $400,000 as a base scenario if institutional investors increase bitcoin allocation, the stablecoin economy grows and a clear regulatory framework is established. It also assumes bitcoin is gradually adopted as a treasury asset and a portfolio asset.

In the most optimistic scenario, it suggested bitcoin could rise to $500,000 to $1 million. In that case, bitcoin would need to account for a larger share of global savings and institutional portfolios and be widely used as a reserve asset by companies or countries.

At the same time, blockchain infrastructure would need to become a major payment and settlement method for autonomous software as well as for humans. It said it is difficult to explain market expansion at that level solely by another crypto investment boom.

Ultimately, the key to determining bitcoin’s 2030 price depends less on simple investment sentiment than on how deeply crypto is established as a real financial and payment infrastructure. If regulatory clarity, AI-based automated payments, expanded stablecoin liquidity and post-halving supply cuts proceed at the same time, the demand structure of the bitcoin market itself could change from what it is now.